SMU Election Project ND

What Happened?

2008-11-07T10:38:00.000-08:00

With North Dakota becoming a toss-up state in the last weeks before the election, it is interesting to see how they state stayed red.

A first look at the county by county break down shows an overwhelming number of counties favoring John McCain. However, a substantial amount of North Dakota's most populous and youthful counties favored Barack Obama. These include most of the counties along the North Dakota-Minnesota border including Grand Forks and Cass counties, home to the University of North Dakota and the state's capital respectively. Other counties that favored Obama were those heavily influenced by the Native American population like Sioux county in the southern region of the state. Despite Obama's win in these areas, his numbers fell short of the combination of middle and west North Dakota counties that strongly supported McCain.

A break down of exit poll numbers shows that while Obama carried the 18-29 age group with 51%, McCain was able to capture the majority of 30-44 (57%) and 45-64 (55%) voter pools. In addition, McCain received both the majority of male and female votes with 57% and 51% respectively.

North Dakota Given to McCain

2008-11-04T18:02:00.000-08:00

CNN called North Dakota for John McCain at 8:01 p.m. central.

One Day to Go!!!

2008-11-03T10:44:00.000-08:00

The most recent polls show McCain with only a +1% lead in the state; however, I believe history will favor McCain on Election Day and the state of North Dakota will stay true to its red roots.

Latest North Dakota Poll Averages

2008-11-01T12:41:00.000-07:00

Obama: 46.0%
McCain: 42.9%

Obama Back on Air in ND

2008-11-01T12:04:00.000-07:00

Three days from Election Day, Barack Obama is showing his political power. With money to burn, Obama will once again begin running television advertisements in North Dakota. Although the candidate pulled out of the state about a month ago, with his new gains in North Dakota polls and clear leads in most swing states, there is really nothing to lose.

Howard Dean to Campaign for Change in ND

2008-10-31T08:17:00.000-07:00

Gov. Howard Dean, current DNC chairman, will campaign for the Obama-Biden ticket in Grand Forks and Fargo, ND this Saturday, Nov. 1 reports MarketWatch.com. These campaign stops will be part of the Democratic Party's national Get Out the Vote effort. It will be Dean's first visit to North Dakota in the 2008 election cycle.

Who thought that this close to Election Day, North Dakota would be labeled a toss-up and big name Democrats would be paying attention?

Latest Polling Averages in ND

2008-10-27T17:23:00.000-07:00

The Spread
McCain +4
John McCain 45.3%
Barack Obama 42.0%

Source: The Washington Post

The Forum Endorses John McCain.

2008-10-27T17:10:00.000-07:00

Despite his recent drop in state polls, McCain on Sunday won endorsement from the Forum, North Dakota's largest newspaper, which praised his "traditional conservative values, a streak of independence and … depth of experience."

As to Obama, the Forum printed "Americans should not put a rookie in the highest office in the land," the editorial stated."The new leader of the free world must inspire confidence, not only at home, but overseas. Obama's oratorical skills are impressive, but they tend to mesmerize, rather than stimulate critical thinking about his policy positions. McCain might not be as smooth, but his record and his independence reveal a steady hand. America needs a steady hand" (Minn Post).

With only eight days to go, it will be interesting to see how much of an impact this endorsement will have on McCain's current standings in the state.

Could Obama's Words from the Primaries Ring True on Election Day?

2008-10-27T16:49:00.000-07:00

On April 4, 2008, Barack Obama spoke to a crowd of 17,000 at the North Dakota Democratic Party convention in Grand Forks.

Recently, the traditional Republican stronghold has been moved to leaning McCain or even to a tossup in many election maps.

Although Obama closed his campaign offices in the state months ago, North Dakota Democrats have not given up. In fact, many have continued the work that they began under the Obama campaign before staff offices began to close. Erina Barta, a student at the University of North Dakota who has been working diligently to increase Obama support in the state is one of many who are ecstatic with Obama's recent jump in the ND polls. "It's nice validation for anyone working on the campaign," she said, "and it shows people that you can't just assume things about North Dakota" (The Minn Post).

So, will Obama carry a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson?

10 Days To Go!

2008-10-23T21:15:00.001-07:00

Here is a break down of North Dakota 10 days out from the election:

Current Status: Leaning McCain
Current Polling: The average of current polling data shows McCain leading Obama 47.7% to 43.7% with a +/-4 spread
Previous Election Results: 2004-Republican (George W. Bush), 2000-Republican (George W. Bush), 1996-Republican (Bob Dole), 1992-Republican (George Bush Sr.)
Key Issues: Economy, Energy
Other Influential Races on the Ticket: Governor- Incumbent John Hoven (R) currently leading 68% v. Sen. Tim Mathern (D) with 28%

Analysis: Despite Obama's recent jump in the polls, history is on McCain's side and it will more than likely stay that way on Election Day. I'm calling North Dakota for McCain.

Obama Takes the Lead in ND

2008-10-19T16:14:00.000-07:00

Four polls in the last week have shown Obama as leading or tied with McCain in the traditionally red state of North Dakota. The results are listed below:

Research 2000: Obama 45% to McCain 45% with a margin of error of +/- 4%

DFM: Obama 44% to McCain 41% with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%

Fargo Forum: Obama 45% to McCain 43% with a margin of error +/- 4%

Pollster.com: Obama 44.6% to McCain 42.7%

These results could be devastating to the McCain campaign going into the final weeks befor the election. In 2004, North Dakota overwhelmingly supported George W. Bush 63% to 36%. If McCain loses these historically red states, is there any chance he can pull out a win on Nov. 4?

Obama Supporters Trudge On in ND

2008-10-01T16:51:00.000-07:00

Even though the Obama campaign has officially closed all of its campaign offices in North Dakota, his most loyal supports continue the fight. Unpaid volunteers are contining door-to-door campaigning and speaking out on Obama's behalf. They have not given up hope that North Dakota can mobilize enough Democrats to make an impact. The Grand Forks Herald reports, "Volunteers statewide are using the 'Find Events' tool on www.mybarackobama.com and other means to spread the word about what they’re doing."

From Fargo to Bismark to Minot, Obama supporters have formed coalitions in an effort to get out the vote implementing everything from phone banking to forming debate-watch parties. Any and every event in which voters can gather to show their support are being implemented accross the state. In Bismark, "The Obama Web site has Bismarck supporters plugging a 'North Dakota Grassroots for Obama Organizational Meeting' this Tuesday. 'We are refusing to give up on North Dakota! We have formed our own grassroots organization and need help more than ever,' they write" (Grand Forks Herald).

The question now is how much of an impact can these efforts make without funding and backing from the Obama campaign? Did they abandoned their 50 state strategy too soon?

It's Official

2008-09-23T13:37:00.000-07:00

Today it is official, Obama will be closing all of his 11 North Dakota campaign offices. Former workers of these offices will be moved to the neighboring battleground states of Wisconsin and Minnesota. With Obama raising record breaking amounts of money for his 50 state campaign, some might wonder why he is so quickly pulling out of states he vowed to turn blue. This is especially interesting as early voting begins this week in North Dakota.

Obama Pulling out of North Dakota

2008-09-21T15:52:00.000-07:00

The Associated Press reported that although Obama was pulling campaign finances from many red states that were previously receiving campaign funds to fuel anti-McCain advertising, he would continue to pour money into North Dakota. Obama has made it a point to campaign in ND in hope of turning it blue for the first time in just under half a century. However, they are now reporting that Obama will be pulling people and funding out of North Dakota and sending them to more crucial battleground states. This means that Obama will be sending workers from all eleven of his offices in North Dakota to other states within the next week or so. It looks like Obama his given up on North Dakota and thus, his 50 state plan.

McCain Still Leading in North Dakota

2008-09-16T19:58:00.000-07:00

The latest Rasmussen Poll in North Dakota shows that John McCain is leading Barack Obama in the polls, 55% to 41%. Additionally, the report shows that McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, is bringing in even more positive ratings with a current 64% approval.

Palin Appeals to North Dakota

2008-09-12T15:11:00.000-07:00

Obama and McCain have both decidedly cut back spending in non-swing states. For Obama, this includes the McCain-leaning state of North Dakota. According to the New York Times, Obama had previously given the impression that he believed the "primary victory as well as endorsements from the two Democratic U.S. senators could help trigger an upset" in the state. However, after McCain's pick of Sarah Palin as his Vice-Presidential running mate, North Dakota may no longer be in the mood for a political shift. The UK's Telegraph reports that voters in North Dakota may be "attracted by her (Palin's) frontier roots and enthusiasm for gun rights."

Since McCain's pick, reports show that Obama has begun to shift his focuses to more controversial states. This includes shifting his spending focus to battleground states; thus, it seems that North Dakota will be taking a back seat for the time being as the campaign moves forward. As of today, McCain still holds strong with 47% approval to Obama's 41.8%.